Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.015886 0.017987 0.020264 0.022917 0.025924 0.029226 0.033130
2025-08-17 0.012210 0.015018 0.018323 0.022504 0.027657 0.033809 0.041721
2025-08-24 0.010444 0.013594 0.017518 0.022771 0.029631 0.038303 0.050128
2025-08-31 0.009040 0.012324 0.016606 0.022611 0.030834 0.041728 0.057313
2025-09-07 0.008207 0.011646 0.016314 0.023128 0.032853 0.046276 0.066300
2025-09-14 0.007148 0.010510 0.015239 0.022393 0.032983 0.048145 0.071621
2025-09-21 0.006407 0.009731 0.014560 0.022109 0.033664 0.050770 0.078180
2025-09-28 0.005683 0.008892 0.013696 0.021435 0.033655 0.052311 0.083164
2025-10-05 0.005427 0.008737 0.013832 0.022281 0.036018 0.057616 0.094431
2025-10-12 0.005131 0.008482 0.013780 0.022806 0.037894 0.062281 0.105050
2025-10-19 0.004878 0.008270 0.013771 0.023383 0.039882 0.067260 0.116594
2025-10-26 0.004508 0.007827 0.013339 0.023206 0.040567 0.070103 0.124707
2025-11-02 0.004194 0.007457 0.013008 0.023189 0.041559 0.073603 0.134393
2025-11-09 0.003843 0.006994 0.012478 0.022776 0.041813 0.075836 0.142022
2025-11-16 0.003636 0.006766 0.012339 0.023046 0.043311 0.080395 0.154319
2025-11-23 0.003386 0.006437 0.011986 0.022885 0.043982 0.083474 0.164062
2025-11-30 0.003252 0.006313 0.011999 0.023408 0.045988 0.089204 0.179445
2025-12-07 0.002967 0.005875 0.011384 0.022663 0.045458 0.090005 0.185068
2025-12-14 0.002764 0.005581 0.011019 0.022376 0.045799 0.092524 0.194374
2025-12-21 0.002535 0.005213 0.010482 0.021694 0.045278 0.093258 0.200009
2025-12-28 0.002491 0.005219 0.010687 0.022550 0.048004 0.100836 0.220851
2026-01-04 0.002414 0.005151 0.010736 0.023082 0.050086 0.107231 0.239686
2026-01-11 0.002347 0.005096 0.010808 0.023666 0.052326 0.114134 0.260257